Shiny Pokemon have been released in Pokemon Go, but a substantial number of players have not yet had the experience of encountering one. So how rare are these new shiny creatures, exactly?
Based on previous games, shiny Pokemon always tend to be fairly rare. That’s kind of the appeal of them; there’s nothing inherently valuable about these differently-colored creatures other than the fact that they are rather uncommon and not easy to come by.
When shiny Pokemon were first introduced in the original games, there would be about one shiny Pokemon for every 8,192 regular Pokemon. However, this number was later tweaked to 4,096.
Nobody yet knows what that number is for Pokemon Go, but there’s evidence to suggest that they are about that rare. In a recent poll of about 3,100 Pokemon Go players on Reddit, 94 percent of those polled said that they have not yet encountered a shiny Pokemon, compared to six percent who have encountered one. In total, 185 players have already caught a shiny Pokemon, while 2,965 have not encountered one.
And the Pokemon are likely going to be much rarer than that going forward. After all, there is currently a water festival event ongoing in Pokemon Go, during which Magikarp and other water-type Pokemon spawn more frequently than usual. You are therefore much more likely to encounter Magikarp this week than any other, and therefore you are more likely to encounter a shiny Pokemon.
We’ll know more about the rarity of shiny Pokemon after this week’s water festival ends and after more shiny Pokemon are released into the game.